Opens in a new tab

Price is not the only signal of the market. Demand and marketability can indicate changes earlier.

Market Signal

The real estate market does not react across all indicators at the same time. Prices may appear stable for a...

The real estate market does not react across all indicators at the same time. Prices may appear stable for a period even as demand, the pool of buyers, or marketing periods change. A valuation should therefore not rely solely on observed price levels.

Demand shows how many market participants are willing and economically able to acquire or use a property under the prevailing conditions. A shrinking pool of buyers can make a property harder to market without immediately showing up in observable transaction prices. Longer marketing periods can also indicate that supply and demand are no longer in the same relationship as before.

Marketability complements this assessment. It describes how readily a property can be sold under current market conditions. Property quality, use, location, the pool of buyers, and financing conditions all influence marketability.

Lower marketability does not automatically mean that market value has declined to the same extent. The change may initially become visible through longer marketing periods, fewer interested parties, or more intensive negotiations. Prices may react only later.

Transaction data remain essential to the valuation process. They show the conditions under which buyers and sellers have actually reached agreement. However, a limited number of transactions can reduce their explanatory value and require assessment based on additional market information.

A valuation must therefore distinguish between a potential risk and an already observable market reaction. Expectations regarding future developments are not sufficient on their own. If the actual behaviour of market participants changes, however, this provides information that must be considered in the market analysis.

Die einzelnen Signale dรผrfen nicht isoliert betrachtet werden. Eine lรคngere Vermarktungsdauer kann objektspezifische Ursachen haben. Ein kleinerer Kรคuferkreis kann auf die Finanzierung, die Nutzung oder die Lage zurรผckzufรผhren sein. Erst die Verknรผpfung mehrerer Marktbeobachtungen ermรถglicht eine belastbare Einordnung.

The valuation date defines the relevant point in time. The valuation must reflect the market conditions that exist at the valuation date and are observable to market participants. Subsequent developments must not be incorporated retrospectively into the valuation.

Price remains a central market outcome. It is not, however, its only signal. Demand and marketability can make changes visible before prices fully reflect them.

Ronny Kazyska is wearing a suit in Frankfurt's banking district, in front of modern office buildings and high-rises.